Statistics and the truth

By:  March 2, 2008 Categories: 

It’s scientifically proven: Black cars are 12% more involved in an accident. So, when buying a car, is it better to buy a white car?

It’s easy to think that way, but statistics don’t mean the world. Think a little bit further. Maybe there is a direct connection between the colour of the car and the amount of accidents, but maybe not.

Perhaps aggressive young drivers have a preference for black cars.

Sounds plausible, right?

Well, if that’s the true reason, you can buy a black car without having to worry about an increased risk of a crash.

People are tempted to put a direct connection between statistics and reality, but you should look a little bit further.

How about the following:
At fires, there are a lot of firefighters around.

Does that mean firefighters are often pyromaniacs?

See what I’m trying to say?

Statistics aren’t everything

Latest

Searching for meadows

Searching for meadows

Our new home in the Netherlands sits in a mundane residential area full of young families like ours. The street name comes from made (‘meadow’), still referring to a field that once lay here and now survives only in the name. And cycling through the villages around Hattem, I keep meeting names like it. Nearby […]
August 5, 2026
Degrees of wealth

Degrees of wealth

In eight years of living in China, taxi drivers or older colleagues loved to ask, “Which is better, the Netherlands or China?”, hoping for a single insightful answer that would explain everything. And now, back as a resident in the Netherlands, people ask the mirrored version: do I miss living in China? Neither question is […]
July 11, 2026
Goodbye to Guanyin

Goodbye to Guanyin

It’s a Saturday morning, and we’re in a taxi on the way to the airport. My clothes cling to my body and already reek of sweat, and that’s even before our 12-hour flight has started. Today I woke up at 5:30 to get up early and throw away the last furniture and items we used […]
June 30, 2026
Half a Jin, Eight Liang

Half a Jin, Eight Liang

Learning Chinese, or any language, makes you more aware of language in general. And one thing that surprised me is that, despite Mandarin being so different from my mother tongue (Dutch), both languages reach for the same units when weighing things: the kilogram (公斤, gōngjīn) and the half-kilogram (斤, jīn). It’s a small thing, but […]
June 24, 2026